Read More
A hand drawn landscape image

Rising Heat, Falling River?

The Euphrates River in the grip of climate change

A black and white illustration of planet earth bobbing up and down

Published: 22 March 2024

Story by UNDP Syria and Onewater

The Middle East is one of the most vulnerable regions to global climate change. Climate change will be a key driver of increased water stress in the region, particularly in Syria and Iraq.

At the beginning of the 21st Century, the average number of extremely hot days per year in the region was 16. This number is projected to increase to 80–120 days by the middle of the century.

EXTREMELY HOT DAYS

50
Today

The worst-case scenario: +200 extremely hot days per year by the end of the century.

In Syria, the impacts of climate change are both diverse and profound. The country faces a multitude of challenges: soaring temperatures, more frequent and intense droughts, decreased levels of precipitation, irregular snowmelt affecting river flows, diminishing soil moisture, and increasing soil salinity.

Moreover, the socio-economic impacts related to climate change, particularly the risks of conflict over water resources, could become severe as water scarcity becomes an increasingly pressing issue in the Middle East region.

Timeframe

2030
2050
2080

Scenarios

Optimistic
Business as usual
Pessimistic
Business as usual

Water Stress

Low (<10%)
Low to medium (10-20%)
Medium to high (20-40%)
High (40-80%)
Extremely high (>80%)
Arid & low water use
A satelite image showing the water scarcity predictions

HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE

Climate change is drastically altering the hydrological cycle in several significant ways. The effects of this are particularly evident along the Euphrates in Syria.

A drawn landscape image depicting Baseline weather pattern
A drawn landscape image depicting Baseline weather pattern
A drawn landscape image depicting Baseline weather pattern
A drawn landscape image depicting Baseline weather pattern
A drawn landscape image depicting Baseline weather pattern
A drawn landscape image depicting Baseline weather pattern
Climate change impacts every aspect of the hydrological cycle, including evaporation, precipitation, and water storage in its various forms. These effects also highlight the interconnectedness of river systems from their sources to the sea.

CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE

The capacity to adapt to extreme heat is very limited in poorer, remote areas where heat and drought significantly impact health and agriculture.

“

Climate change will continue to significantly worsen living conditions in the Middle East and North Africa. Protracted heat waves and sandstorms may make some areas uninhabitable [...].

”

Director at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry

Jos Lelieveld

While comprehensive strategies to address extreme temperature increases are still being developed, practical measures can be implemented. For instance, modifying housing to maintain cooler indoor temperatures is a viable option, especially in sun-abundant regions where solar energy could be harnessed for cooling purposes. In the agricultural sector, adapting to more frequent droughts might involve implementing innovative irrigation techniques and cultivating drought-resistant crops.

UNDP Syria and development partners have been actively initiating pilot projects aimed at enhancing the resilience and adaptive capabilities of Syrian communities in the face of a changing climate. You can explore some examples beneath.

  • Image of a solution

    Environmental Challenges and the Road to Resilience: Transforming Eastern Ghouta's Landscape

  • Image of a solution

    UN-Habitat, UNDP, FAO to launch Adaptation Fund Project to address climate change

  • Image of a solution

    Pursuit of environmental sustainability and climate resilience through urban recovery in Syria

  • Image of a solution

    Adapting to Climate Change in Conflict-Affected Syria

  • Image of a solution

    Rising to the challenge: Climate action in the Arab region

  • Image of a solution

    Green Climate Fund supports the Syrian Arab Republic to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change

NEXT STORY / BIODIVERSITY

REFERENCES

Adamo, N., Al-Ansari, N., Sissakian, V., Laue, J., & Knutsson, S. (2018). The future of the Tigris and Euphrates water resources in view of climate change. Journal of Earth Sciences and Geotechnical Engineering, 8(3), 59-74.https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A1199706&dswid=8421
Arvanita, E., Boti, M., Eleftheroglou, D., Krasanaki, M., Padouva, E., Rousopoulos, V., Sagias, T., Xepapadea, C., & Zervakaki, V. (n.d.). The Future of the Euphrates River in Syria: A Cradle of Civilization Cries for Help. Center for Strategic & International Studieshttps://features.csis.org/the-future-of-the-Euphrates-River/
Baba, A., Karem, R. A., & Yazdani, H. (2021). Groundwater resources and quality in Syria. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 14, 100617.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2021.100617
Bachmann, A., Tice, V., Al-Obeidi, L. A., & Kilıç, D. T. (2019). Tigris-Euphrates River Ecosystem: A Status Report. Paper for the Mesopotamia Water Forum 2019.https://www.savethetigris.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Paper-Challenge-C-Ecosystem-FINAL-to-be-published-1.pdf
Bozkurt, D., & Sen, O. L. (2013). Climate change impacts in the Euphrates–Tigris Basin based on different model and scenario simulations. Journal of hydrology, 480, 149-161.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.021
Devi, S. (2021). Syria and Iraq facing severe drought. The Lancet, 398(10309), 1395.https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02238-8
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4).https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar4/
Khaleefa, O., & Kamel, A. H. Effects of Flow Rate in Euphrates River on Salinity Concentrations. SSRG International Journal of Civil Engineering, 8(6), 1-7.https://doi.org/10.14445/23488352/IJCE-V8I6P101
Lelieveld, J., Proestos, Y., Hadjinicolaou, P., et al. (2016). Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century. Climatic Change, 137, 245–260.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6
Mueller, A., Detges, A., Pohl, B., Reuter, M. H., Rochowski, L., Volkholz, J., & Woertz, E. (2021). Climate Change, Water and Future Cooperation and Development in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin Cascades.https://www.cascades.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Euphrates-Tigris-Report_Final.pdf
Şensoy, A., Uysal, G., Doğan, Y. O., & Civelek, H. S. (2023). The Future Snow Potential and Snowmelt Runoff of Mesopotamian Water Tower. Sustainability, 15(8), 6646. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15086646
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. (2022). Critical response and funding requirements: Response to the water crisis in Syria.https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/critical-response-and-funding-requirements-response-water-crisis-syria-august-2022
Wang, X., & Liu, L. (2023). The Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrological Cycle and Water Resource Management. Water, 15(13), 2342.https://doi.org/10.3390/w15132342
World Bank. (n.d.). Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Iraq.https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/Iraq
World Bank. (n.d.). Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Syrian Arab Republic.https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/syrian-arab-republic
World Resources Institute. (2023) Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas.https://www.wri.org/aqueduct